White Paper
How to Model for Loss of Exclusivity and Generic Entrants
This article explains how pharmaceutical forecasting teams can model loss of exclusivity (LoE) and the entry of generic and biosimilar competitors using J+D's forecasting platform. It outlines a structured approach to identifying products at risk, modelling launch timing, uptake curves, market share shifts, and source-of-business assumptions to quantify commercial impact. The paper emphasizes transparent forecasting, scenario planning, and stakeholder alignment while recommending that LoE planning begin at least two years before patent expiry. It also discusses how evolving market conditions and competitive dynamics should be incorporated into ongoing forecast updates.
