This white paper examines how climate change is expected to affect global wheat production and supply chains over the long term. Rising greenhouse gas emissions will create uneven impacts, with some potential gains in temperate regions and more severe negative effects in sub‑tropical areas. While higher carbon dioxide levels and technological advances may temporarily support yields, increasing heat and drought are likely to outweigh these benefits over time. The risks are especially acute in dry sub‑tropical countries where wheat is already grown near or above optimal temperature thresholds, threatening productivity, stability, and global supply reliability in coming decades.

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