Turning Rock Partners’ 2025 outlook highlights heightened uncertainty as Fed policy ambiguity, global strife, and new tariffs drive volatility. Corporate profits remain high and unemployment low, but yield curves suggest recession risk. Trade policies are spiking equity volatility and widening credit spreads, though history shows tariff impacts often normalize after a few quarters. Private credit stands out with yield premiums, diversification benefits, and lower-than-expected defaults, fueling strong investor demand and growth potential. The U.S. middle market shows resilience, with revenues growing six times faster than the S&P 500. Turning Rock stresses resilient business models, moderate leverage, and tight duration for navigating turbulent markets.

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