This paper uses scenario analysis to examine how geopolitical fragmentation and technological adoption could interact to shape the global economy by 2030. It lays out four scenarios: Digitalized Order, Cautious Stability, Tech-based Survival, and Geotech Spheres. Together, they capture different combinations of political stability, trade openness, technological progress, and economic performance. The report emphasizes that business leaders face a world of weaker growth assumptions, more interdependent risks, and more unexpected openings. Rather than predict one future, it offers a foresight framework to stress-test strategy and identify “no-regret” moves such as strengthening core operations, improving geopolitical intelligence, building supply-chain resilience, scaling emerging technologi

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